Impacto del COVID-19 sobre la actividad económica de San Carlos de Bariloche

Una aproximación a partir de indicadores sintéticos

Abstract

We estimate a monthly index of local economic activity for San Carlos de Bariloche between 2006 and 2020. A set of series related to the economic cycle is considered to estimate an index which represents the local economic activity. The index shows the exogenous events that affected local economic growth and allows estimating the impact of COV ID-19. This is the first estimation of a single economic index for the city which represents a contribution to local statistics. However, the problems with the availability of official data –specifically those collected by the Municipality of Bariloche– represent a significant limitation for the continuous updating of the index. The missing data is compensated with statistical techniques to forecast the general index (6 series) from a partial index (3 series).

Keywords: economic indicators, business cycle, regional economies, COV ID-19